earlier  this year， when America first sneezed， the European Central Bank （along with most private-sector economists） argued that the euro area was insulated from America's slowdown and had little to worry about. This seems to have been wrong. In Germany there are fears about recession as business investment and retail sales tumble. Recent figures confirmed that Germany's GDP stagnated in the second quarter. Italy's GDP fell in the second quarter， and although growth has held up better in France and Spain， the growth in the euro area as a whole was close to zero in the quarter. Nobody is forecasting an actual recession in the euro area this year， but it is no longer expected to provide an engine for world growth. As for Japan， it is probably already in recession. Japan's GDP grew slightly in the first quarter. Persistent deflation continues to be a severe problem. A revised measure of Japan's consumer-price index， to be published soon， is likely to show that deflation is worse than had been thought. （170 words）

　　美国经济今年初伤风感冒时，欧洲央行（和大多数私营经济学家一道）宣称欧元区不会受美元的萎靡不振所影响，不必杞人忧天。如今证明大错特错。在德国，随着企业投资及零售额双双下滑，人们担心会出现经济衰退。日前公布的德国第二季度的GDP也证明经济停滞不前。意大利第二季度GDP负增长，法国及西班牙虽然稍强，但是欧元区大部分国家第二季度经济都接近零增长。谁也不会预言欧元区今年会有实质性衰退，但谁也再无法指望它来带动全球的经济增长了。
　　至于日本，可能已经陷入了经济衰退。第一季度GDP仅微幅增长。持续不衰的通货紧缩继续成为一个严重的问题。最近即将发表的日本消费物价指数的修订标准可能会显示，通货紧缩比预期的情况更为严重。